Huckabee and the Iowa Caucus

I posted in the fall that Mike Huckabee was becoming my candidate of choice to support in the Iowa caucus. At the time his polling support in Iowa was single digits. He trailed Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Thompson. In just three months, he has apparently lept to the top of the polls and now has a real shot of winning the vote, which is just 28 days away.

What has happened, and what is a proper perspective on this?

First off, Huckabee supporters will tell you (as will Huckabee himself) that he knows who he is, and running for president doesn't require that he begin catering to a new constituency. He is a former Southern Baptist church leader and two-time Republican governor. He has a personal record and voting record that paints a pretty good picture of who he is, and he's not trying to reinvent himself. That's good.

Second, he has played the "Sleeper Risk" card to a "T". I'm referring to the classic board game Risk. As devotees of the game know, one strategy to winning is playing slowly -- not attacking your opponents too quickly, and not positioning yourself as a risk to other players. In other words, lull your fellow players to sleep and then surprise them with your strength.

Politically, this is Huckabee. For months at a time, his opponents paid him no attention. Quietly, with very little money, he has diligently shook hands with the conservative voters that play such a big role in the Iowa caucus. Most seem to like the message and the style with which its delivered. Its only within the last month that the bog dogs have noticed that Huck is no longer polling six percent (I believe he's at 28 percent now).

The larger question is not, "Will Huckabee win Iowa?" Rather, it is, "Can Huckabee win anywhere else but Iowa and Arkansas?" Nationally, he is still a low-poller, a distant fourth. It is a similar story for Democrat John Edwards, whose campaigning in Iowa for the last five years has yielded him respectable polling numbers, but whose national numbers are light years behind Clinton and Obama.

With 28 days left until 125,000 Iowans go the polls (just four percent of the state's population), anything can happen. I do plan to caucus, and at this point, will check the box for Huckabee. I'll keep you posted.