Finding a Needle in a Straw Poll

Iowa's Republican Party straw poll that took place nine days ago is already old news. Since then, every candidate for president from both parties has probably visited the Iowa State Fair and rubbed elbows with the populace that will decide his/her political fate in six months. Yesterday I watched a portion of a Democrat debate broadcast from Drake University in Des Moines.

Declared and not-yet declared candidates have been criss-crossing Iowa since a week after the 2004 presidential election. The activity picked up in July and will continue strong through the January caucus. Iowa, of course, is the first-in-the-nation caucus state. As such, whether rightly or wrongly, presidential candidates spend an enormous amount of time and money among our corn fields and small cities, hoping to claim the first victory toward party nomination.

I recently have had lunch with two good friends. One has likely voted Democrat for president for at least the last 20 years. The other, a staunch Republican voter. Both conversations were friendly and honest when it came to political pontification.

My Democrat friend surprisingly said that among the many candidates he has to choose from, none got him too excited. He made the point, and I agreed, that many of the Democrats have a leg up on any Republican because the current president is so unpopular. Americans voting for "change" may not care who they elect, as long as its not the current party in the White House. In the end, I think we concluded that Mrs. Clinton is the clear front-runner, but John Edwards is a "safe bet" because he is neither black nor a woman (both characteristics may prejudice certain voters). Yet, again, not one of the candidate truly stirred my friend's blood.

Lunch with my Republican friend turned to some of the usual questions among Republican voters. How do you feel about voting for a Mormon (Romney), and how "Mormon" is he? Is Giuliani conservative enough? Is McCain likable enough? Does anyone else in the field even have a chance? Our lunch was prior to the straw poll, and we both felt that if Huckabee or Brownback could make a move and place well, it might jump start his respective campaign. (As it turned out, Huckabee DID place a strong second and HAS seen a lift.) Yet the question remains, are any of these men both desirable and electable.

So, we're left trying to find a needle in the straw polls -- identifying a man or woman that seems honest, displays leadership characteristics, works well with other people, is a problem-solver, and who captures our attention to such a great height that we're willing to brave hot August gymnasiums to listen to stump speeches, and a cold January night to cast a vote.

As for me, I'm still searching.