Maize and Blue Gives Black and Blue

Iowa's disastrous game last Saturday against Indiana has been well-chronicled in the local media. The bottom line is two-fold. First, that a loss to Indiana should not have happened at this stage of the Iowa program. But second, that's why the game is played and predictions aren't worth the paper (or the electronic media device) they're printed on.

I looked back to previous blog entries this fall and noticed that I never gave a season projection of wins for the Iowa team. I had meant to. So, while it may appear to be cheating now that the season is half over, my prediction would have been (you just half to trust me):

9-3

I would have said that Iowa loses to Ohio State. I would have said that Iowa would lose to either Iowa State, Wisconsin, or Purdue. And I would have said that Iowa loses to Michigan.

Of course, Iowa did lose to Ohio State. Since Iowa has beaten ISU and Purdue, it stands to reason that I think Iowa can (and will) be beaten by Wisconsin. And this weekend, Iowa will lose to Michigan. Couple those predictions with Iowa's unexpected loss, and I think the team will finish 8-4.

This weekend could be brutal. Michigan has the best run defense in the conference (maybe the country). Iowa's first string guy is hurt, third string guy is hurt, and the second string guy has a recent habit of fumbling. If Iowa can't run, that means QB Drew Tate will have to pass 40-50 times. I'm comfortable with Tate passing, but I'm not comfortable with the guys on the receiving end. There have been a lot of missed routes and dropped balls this year among Iowa's inexperienced and less talented receiving corps. The breakout guy of the year, Dominque Douglas, may be hobbling due to an injury suffered last week.

I don't like the way this game is setting up. If Iowa looked bad against OSU at home, I think the result at Michigan may be worse. With that in mind ...

Iowa 17
Michigan 38