Calling the Spread

I'm not much of a gambler. Outside of a friendly, low key NCAA tournament pool and $10 in a cruise ship casino, I don't recall ever wagering money.

Just for fun, I signed up this past fall for a college football pick'em contest through Yahoo. Each week you pick the winner of 18-20 games featuring nationally recognizable teams. Not only do you have to pick a winner, but you have to pick against the spread. So, if Iowa and Michigan are playing and Michigan is a 13 point favorite (this was the case last week), picking Iowa means that you expect them to win, or lose by less than 13. If you pick Michigan, they must win by 13 or more to count it as a successful pick.

I've been amazed by the number of games where the spread is dead-on accurate. It's a reminder that you're really not supposed to win money when you gamble -- at least, not a lot of money. Just enough to keep you coming back, so you'll bet (and lose) again.

Iowa did not cover the spread last week, thanks to a late-game Michigan touchdown. Ironically, most fans thought Iowa played a great game. Yet if you had bet on Iowa losing by less than 13 points, you lost your coin.

I don't know what the spread is for this week's game against Northern Illinois (it doesn't happen to be one of the pick'em games). But I see a challenging game ahead for Iowa. Northern Illinois has one of the nation's best running backs. If Iowa can shut him down, they might pass for 300 yards. But Iowa's biggest concern is the absence of starting QB Drew Tate. Iowa's ofense has been inconsistent, and could lay an egg Saturday.

I think the game might be uncomfortably close. If the weather is cold and wet, anything could happen. Hawk fans, cross your fingers and rub your rabbit foot.

Iowa 16
Northern Illinois 13